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In a comprehensive analysis, the author offers insights into the upcoming year’s political developments, highlighting key predictions and trends. One prominent forecast asserts that Jeremy Hunt is unlikely to cut inheritance tax in the March 6 Budget, opting instead for a reduction in income tax favoring lower earners.

The term “Starnakism” is introduced, capturing a cross-party consensus akin to Butskellism in the 1950s and 1960s. The prediction is that Rishi Sunak, facing challenges from within his party, will focus on the center ground, acknowledging the limited appetite for unfunded tax cuts among persuadable voters.

Immigration, a contentious issue, remains a challenge for both the government and the opposition. Keir Starmer’s potential shift towards the Conservative stance on processing asylum claims outside the UK is noted. However, distinctions between past considerations and the current Rwanda policy highlight a fundamental difference between the parties.

The article anticipates the election on December 12, 2024, providing room for one more “fiscal event” – essentially, a last opportunity for Sunak to capitalize on any favorable changes in economic forecasts. The Tory election campaign is predicted to be shaped by Isaac Levido, following a simplified and exaggerated narrative, focusing on Sunak’s defense of 14 years of Tory government.

Further forecasts include potential concessions to junior doctors, efforts to address NHS waiting lists, and attempts to instill fear of a Labour government losing control of public finances. The latter is expected to center around the slogan “Labour’s £28bn bombshell,” critiquing Rachel Reeves’ plan for green investment and the party’s commitment to decarbonizing electricity generation by 2030.

While acknowledging the challenges the Tories face in 2024, the article suggests that Sunak’s strategy, combined with an emphasis on effective communication through television, could pose a more formidable threat to Labour than anticipated by online political observers. The piece concludes by noting the potential for a competitive fight despite the Tories’ overall vulnerability in the upcoming election.

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